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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: Steve Lee who wrote (10041)1/31/2002 5:22:50 PM
From: Joe Smith  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
Although my feelings are similar to yours, I might point out some possible openings to JT's hopes. Look at August of 2000. One might have shorted there with VIX at relative lows in low 20's. Yet there was another 10% left of insane complacency that took the VIX below 20 and the NAZ above 4000 with the run that summer looking very similar to the run this winter. This does seem to be a perfect setup for such "panic buying" just as panic selling took us way beyond 40 in September.

But, just as in September, the VIX will revert to its norm. It was impossible for the VIX to stay in the 30's forever giving strength to the rally through October, November and December. We will see a VIX in the 30's sometime this Spring I would assume, giving us retests in the 1700's or lower.
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