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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 71.07

-1.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: GVTucker who wrote (56951)	1/31/2002 5:53:19 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) of 77397

I'm of the opinion that if your accounting abilities are good enough, you should be able to spot potential Enrons and avoid them. I agree here. I think however it's the "and avoid them" part that's hard. Stuff like Enron goes past the accountant neurons straight to the greed center of the brain. No exemption for self or CPAs either. And I think back not even two years ago while the rational part of my brain was saying "this is nuts; sell, stupid" and the greed center was saying "woo hoo ride the gain; more coming to brilliant investors like me". And I think about the sense of social belonging at parties talking about which stocks we owned and how smart we were (meanwhile thinking "this is nuts, of course, but I'm getting rich"). And then six months later the downright nasty social expulsion for daring to express the alternate opinion. 'Cause the allure is strong. Whether it's of a Bre-x or an Enron or even an authentic college try at something novel like eToys or dramatic like Global Crossing... Or plebean like Laidlaw... oh, sure, it's strong. Yes, we should recognize the signs. Even many of us non-accountants recognize the signs. And here you struck a real chord: But if you're willing to live with the false positives, your chances of buying an Enron are almost nil. For tucked within being willing to live with false positives, there's also the social loneliness of enduring through jeers and catcalls and self-doubt as we watch apparent wealth pass by... even for the true positives. Which isn't easy. Not at all. John

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