MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (10023)	2/1/2002 12:12:21 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, January 31st, 2002: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 261.3 MillionBULLISH SPX Short- URSA 259.8 MillionBULLISH NDX Long - OTC 922.6 MillionBULLISH NDX Short- ARKTOS 145.6 MillionBULLISH RUT 2000 - MIKROS 94.9 MillionBULLISH XAU Precious Metals 74.0 MillionBEARISH XOI Energy 13.6 MillionBULLISH OSX Energy Services 32.9 MillionBULLISH BKX Banking 27.3 MillionBULLISH BTK Biotech 271.8 Million Money Market 1.315 BILLION *************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 176.8 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 146.5 MillionBULLISH NDX Long - VELOCITY 205.3 MillionBULLISH Dramatic Decrease NDX Short- VENTURE 200.1 MillionBULLISH Near All Time Highs ******************************************* Market screams higher as measured by DOW and SPX but NDX ala tech upside gains are limited for the second day (excluding SOX)in a row. But todays market advance has much higher to go as evidenced by the internal Rydex TA readings. First, NDX Long Velocity TA shrank 60 million on an UP day. Traders appear nervous as NDX grinded higher while SPX cruised higher to the finish line. This is further evidenced by the fact that NDX Short Venture TA increased and is near all time highs. The final nails in the coffin are NDX OTC and Arktos had no significant change in TA. There is no doubt in my mind we are going higher as the market climbs the wall of worry. Any pullbacks should be bought. Both SPX Short Fund TA's stayed relatively the same. Any pullback, if one were to occur tomorrow, and money will pile onto the Short Bear side of the ledger. This will only serve to reinforce the contrary nature of rydex and higher market prices dead ahead. Now we all know about the January effect and see the month is out and the results are in. SPX, and NDX were down. So were DOW, COMP, BKX and too many others to post here now. And as the old adage goes... So goes January... so goes the year... and in this case DOWN. Not so fast... Yale Hirsch Stock Traders Almanac (STA) reminds us that in 1982, the DOW and SPX was down for the month but it was UP for the year; as it commenced the great Bull market through the first part of 2000. The other 'bad january barometer readings' for 'even years' were 1966: Up for January but Down for the year; and 1968 down for January but Up for the year. Both year were when America was fighting the Vietnam War.. Well, today we are certainly fighting a different kind of War on Terrorism... Also, courtesy of STA, January's first five trading days usually decline in a new or <extended Bear market. The first five trading days January 2002 were decidedly UP. Food for thought. January's final tally certainly is one to confuse the market mavens and prognosticators... 1968 and 1982 are good years to look at when comparing the 2002 January effect. Please take notice the edited update.** Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN Best Regards, J.T.

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