Options update for the last little while...(back after a freshener).
Well, I think I've finally wrestled my 'new' computer to a draw, and I can get back to my normal (hmmm) life. Actually, writing has never come easily to me...walking onto the floor and seeing people reading my posts...knowing the TSE 'truth squad' also reads them...and now the OSC, well, it's all a little daunting. Nonetheless, I will continue. I am only trying to generate interest in options in general and my classes specifically; any business has the right to advertise. If (make that when) I fulminate about the TSE management and their singular lack of aptitude for the job, it is only my opinion, although I daresay shared by most of the floor.
BCE: I think I'll start with the star lately. Bell refuses to cooperate with me and keeps going higher. Of course, if you read Dave's informative posts and keep an eye on the market's bell-cow, NTL, Bell's following it up is no surprise. Then why am I short so much Bell? Good question. I normally don't have any ingrained bull or bear mindset, in fact I love when markets go up and we're busy and everybody's happily making money. Lately though I'm getting that uneasy tingle when I see and hear what's going on. Good news is good news and bad news is good news and this time it's different and the laws of economics have been repealed, etc. A young trader from the futures pit just left to become head of trading for one of the large Ontario government's pension funds. A nice kid and presumably a good trader, but he's never seen a bear market and has always succeeded by buying on dips. I promise you that won't last forever. In fact, I believe the market will have a 15-20% break by the end of the year. Anyway, back to Bell...good call buying by the public, two dueling institutional buyers yesterday in the equity, looks higher for now. We've held the line so far on vol, but the US arb dealer called me yesterday looking to buy BCE options. If he steps in we'll have to go up. (21.5,21.5)
ABX: Well, ABX didn't hold that US$24.25 support and has broken down badly, along with bullion. The only question is when will the 'dead-cat' bounce take place. The technicals are all screaming over-sold, but for now I will sell on rallies rather than buying on dips until the fundamentals change. (32,30)
N: I don't think it would be possible for a stock to act like more of a dog than Inco has in the last two months. Not just poor price action, but an overall lack of interest. One of the big US houses downgraded Inco yesterday. Where were they when the stock was $4 higher? I wish I could have a job like theirs--telling people what has already happened and getting paid a fortune to do so. (26.5,26)
Last Friday was a new low for the TSE and it's Derivative Markets area. It marked the last day for Tara O'Donnell, who had been Director for the last eight or so years. She was squeezed out by the new mandarins on the premise that anyone "from before" was an idiot and had to go. Quite the contrary--Tara was a bright light who unfortunately had responsibility without authority; a mandate without any money; truly an untenable position. Nonetheless, her intellect and leadership (plus the fact that she had 'been there' (she started as an order trader)), kept us from going to hell in a hand-basket even while the TSE showered us with neglect. She was the last person in Exchange management that enjoyed the trust of the floor community, and she was forced to walk the plank. So dim the lights for a minute and muffle the drums. Good luck, Tara, we will miss you.
Happy trading.
Porter |
