Tom D: re <CPQ NAIC SSG>.
My 5 year estimated eps is 11.31 - computed from the growth (i use zacks estimate of 19.4% - on last CD value line has 19% and $11).
PE numbers i have are:
year high low
1992 19.3 8.6
1993 13.9 7.6
1994 13.0 7.5
1995 19.7 10.8
1996 16.2 7.7
Avg 16.4 8.5
Current pe of 18.8 based on last 12 mo eps of 5.23
Proj PE (15.8) based on next 12 months EPS 6.24
Note value line 1997 proj eps is 6.25.
In addition, i have the pe range at 16.4 and 8.5 avg as shown above and the estimated potential low computed by (low 5 yr avg pe) * (Proj EPS) of 8.5 * 6.24 of 53. This latter would affect the zoning by a bunch.
I use the NAIC "Investors Toolkit" software done by Truiple-I. I use the S&P data files to build initial entries and sometimes update from value line, if available, since I have found value line numbers to be closer to continuing operations (particularly wrt write-offs). In my opinion, I think the value line analysts get involved in the accounting, while S&P seems to pass along the numbers. Based on a quick look, my ssg appears to be based on the s&p data (source date:12/29/95) and my subsequent postings (either value line or real time). Prior to 1995 does not match last Value Line CD data (April 25, 1997 text analysis date).
As I indicated, have to be careful of using around earnings time, particularly if growing EPS.
If you have other questions, and to avoid confusing other people with details, you can e-mail me if you prefer (click on my name to see profile). Up to you.
I'd be very interested in your findings.
Good trading,
jim garrison |
