Combined COT Update, to Tue, January 29.
Very little change this week for the Commercials. They covered a bit, with the added shorts in the S&P outweighed by the covering in NDX.
Commercials are now net short the NASDAQ only by about a thousand contracts. That compares to about 17,000 short before 9/11. The Large, which usually shows as "dumb money" (perhaps they are hedging), continues to get shorter, and they were long for most of the last number of years.
COMMS LARGE SMALL
This Wk -62,857 +1.3% -12,029 -33.6% +74,888 +3.0%
Last Wk -63,679 +9.8% -9,002 -107.5% +72,680 -3.1%
3 Weeks -70,636 -3.3% -4,339 +41.9% +74,975 -1.1%
4 Weeks -68,363 .... -7,466 .... +75,830 ....
A negative percentage indicates the group got shorter/less long and a positive percentage indicates they got longer/less short. Percentage change is not shown for small numbers.
Below is a crude chart showing the Commercials' short position since the extreme set at the Mar 6, 2001 report. The vertical axis is the number of contracts short and the horizontal is a column for each week.
135,000 :
130,000 |
125,000 |
120,000 |
115,000 ||
110,000 ||
105,000 || |
100,000 || : .||
95,000 || | : .|. ::...||| .
90,000 || |::| |||.|||||||| ||
85,000 ||: ||||..||||||||||||. .|||
80,000 ||| : ||||||||||||||||||| .||||..
75,000 |||| |.| ||||||||||||||||||| |||||||
70,000 |||| ||| ||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||:|
65,000 |||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| :||||||||||::
60,000 |||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||: |||||||||||||
55,000 ||||||||.|||||||||||||||||||||||||:|||||||||||||
50,000 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A reminder that my numbers are based on S&P contract equivalents by taking all the index futures (DJ, RL, MD, SP, SP mini, ND, ND mini) and then weighting and combining the positions.
Note as well that the COT report, although released on Fridays, is as of the prior Tuesday's close.
Commercials change in individual markets from last week:
SP+es ND+nq DJ MD RL
-2.7% +74.4% +9.0% -.7% +16.2%
(See the message I am replying to for the previous update. ccoott) |
