Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 178.35

-2.1%

1:00 PM EST

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To: Craig Schilling who started this subject	2/2/2002 8:07:54 AM
From: Ken S.	Read Replies (1) of 152472

My thoughts regard the slide in QCOM. QCOM is doing what the market is doing. There is a high correlation of about 50%. Currently, the earnings have not shown any spikes to represent the future growth. So, much of the market doesn't differentiate QCOM from other wireless stocks or the recession priced into the market. Someone on the thread pointed out the Greenspan watches the leading indicator index. It did just cross zero and Greenspan did not change the interest rates. The slide in QCOM has been in line with the leading indicator index. That is, the economy is in a recession since maybe March 2000 after interest rates were boosted as a millennium fix. The leading indicator index has been below zero for over a year that I know of. I think QCOM is not recession proof as evident by the last 18 month stock performance. Many hoped it was because of the need to talk and the relatively low cost of a phone. QCOM may lead some tech stocks out of this recession by posting an earnings spike. Economy is recovering, jobless rates are reducing, 1x being promoted, all frontiers adopting CDMA. This will differentiate QCOM as a wireless stock with in a few quarters. The slide in the market will stop it's negative influence as soon as the Enron jitters in the accounting stops spoofing the market. I think the accounting profession is more honorable than the market is giving them credit. With the Enron reaction and the first quarter of scrutinizing, this should pass soon. QCOM's management has always been conservative in accounting practices. Three points support this. The seven year spread of licensing revenue. The low ball earnings estimates. The convservative charges on the books for currently failing assets like Globestar and others. Finally, in light on the Enron CEO's honesty. I think the integrity of the QCOM management is the highest. I watched the earning reports of Nokia and others. I am always impressed by the conservatism and integrity in there business reports. Just the management practise of beating product offering dates consitently. How many company's hype with product offerings. I think this is QCOM's greatest strenght beyond the intellectual property. FWIW Ken

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