John,
-OFF TOPIC SLIGHTLY-
Actually I am frequently a believer of T/A as confirming tools. For instance, recently, after fundamentals indicated BAY might be turning around, I following the stock's On Balance Volume (OBV) to assess signs of institutional accumulation long before the price upswing. Later, the trend reversal was further confirmed by the stock's 200 day ema which began to point up. T/A data as a trend indicator worked out beautifully in this case.
In other circumstances, however, when it was used as a major short-term indicator to call market "top" or "bottom", I found more "miss" than "hit", especially when pending news, rumors or "plays" could change the macro picture in a split second. Furthermore, issues overbought (by using RSI and Williams %) could stay "overbought" for sometime and ditto for "oversold"; a short-term reversal may or may not be imminent.
Of course, all of us could always rationalize afterwards.
Best regards, fundies and techies alike,
Ibexx |
