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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: MSI who wrote (26309)2/2/2002 4:33:34 PM
From: Psycho-Social  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
SOX overvaluation:
My research indicates that the basic cause of the surge in valuation levels stems from an imbalance that prevailed during the '90s. There was a surge in the # of people entering their '40's, which could not be offset by the small # of "divestors", i.e. people entering their 60s. The baby boomers didn't care about valuations. They just knew they were entering their 40s and it was time to get serious about saving/investing for retirement. Likewise, when they enter their 60s they won't be much influenced by valuations (although they may care about their shrinking nest egg) as they end contributions, lower their stock allocations and, in some cases, get out of the Market entirely.

Thus, there is extreme overvaluation, but its a long term issue, not something that you can trade off. It'll gradually diminish and disappear over the next 14 yrs.
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