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To: Moominoid who wrote (91)	2/3/2002 10:21:51 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) of 121

LOL I beat the index last year but still was slightly red. I had a bad beginning to the year. I was still playing the tech mo-mo game and couldn't figure out why it wasn't working. I did pretty well in the spring rally, but a couple of my shorts during the summer ran hard against me while everything else was crashing. Of course I covered at the top....LOL. Shorting wasn't the error, covering was. "Be right, and sit tight!" That’s why I'm going to stick with sectors this year. I was actually quite long just before 9-11, so I got stuck in there for a while. As you know I became bearish way too soon on this rally. Live and learn. For me golds have been my most consistent winners. Learning about gold and currencies has broadened my scope and helped me to mature. Before if it wasn't tech I didn't want to hear about it. Now I look everywhere for opportunity. Rather than worrying about every wiggle in the NAZ this year I will attempt to find the areas that are plainly in impulse up and stick to trading them. Discretion is the better part of valor. If you guys get your wave C or 3 up then I'll reverse course. The current action in tech is too messy to really get feel for right now. I may pack up my tent and go to another market. "No clarity No trade!" I'm going to be trading full time this year so I will reverse on a dime if need be. Not having a jobby job should help a lot. As far as the bear being over the only problem I have with that are valuations and the fact that the mania for tech is still way to strong. This rally proves that the bear is not over. As soon as the nazdaq caught a bid everyone piled in; valuations be damned. The nimble will do well but those who buy looking for a greater fool to save them may get stuck holding the bag. The death of pro-forma may cleanse the market a bit and return things to normal. Any dollar depreciation and our markets are going to look much less appealing to foreign investors, and even to savvy Americans. Dollar weakness is the sword of Damocles for US equities. Continued strength hurts our exports, but any weakness could cause serious declines to our markets. How it plays out remains to be seen. I do believe in the waves though. If the wave count calls for an impulse up then we will get it, fundamentals do not matter. One of my favorite sayings is "Beware of Ellioticians bearing long term counts!" The waves are always right but our ability to interpret them is less than perfect.

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