Gary, Re: <Any comments, guys and gals?> I'll give you a comment... and more.
From your URLs.
2000 2001
time Q1 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
COGS 2964 3283 3148 3230 3225 3307 3553 3402
FG 532 512 676 800 879 1016 746 700
WIP 802 863 926 1057 1367 1431 1308 1316
inv FG 2.3 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 4.0 2.7 2.7
inv WIP 3.5 3.4 3.8 4.3 5.5 5.6 4.8 5.0
Where:
COGS is the cost of goods sold in $M
FG is finished goods inventory (ready to sell) in $M
WIP is "work in progress" or the amount of stuff in the factories in $M
inv FG is 13*FG/COGS, which should be weeks of finished goods in inventory
inv WIP is 13*WIP/COGS, which should be weeks of WIP in inventory
(not really meaningful since this product is only partially
completed, but gives us an indicator of factory loading)
Note that there is not a substantial change in inventory levels moving
from Q3 to Q4, thus I can not agree with your assessment. If we assume
an average uP cost of about $50, the most we could believe is a drop
of 1MU of inventory. Intel has stated that Flash inventory is coming
into balance which leads me to believe that much of the inventory drop
from Q3 to Q4 was flash and not uP, but even if it was all Up, it only
accounts for 1MU.
As I'm looking at COGS/WIP I'm coming up with numbers like 3 to 4. that's 3 1/2 weeks build time for Intel's average chip.(Three to four inventory turns/13 week quarter -- fast.) So fast I've got to be doing something wrong. What is it?
When I'm looking at COGS/30M ( Giving Intel credit for selling around 30M CPUS/Q -- I think that's more than they're actually selling, but other opinions will think it's less.) we're looking at a cpu cost of around $100 back in Q1 01 rising to $140 in Q4 '02. Sounds expensive.
When I'm looking at inv WIP, from Q1 '00 through Q2 '02 we're seeing a constant increase(remember that this is measured in weeks inventory $ sales) at a time Intel was talking about shortages of their chips.
Re: At the same time Intel was stocking Northwoods for the January launch, I figure NWs initial price of about $300.... even if they only stocked 700k of them that would still cancel out the older P4's and coppermines that were sold from inventory.
If Intel's inventorying NWs at $300 they're in serious trouble. These things should be carrying a lower inventory cost than the .18s they're replacing.
Interesting posts. Thanks for putting them up.
tgptndr |
