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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Steve Lee who started this subject2/3/2002 8:27:22 PM
From: exp   of 99280
 
SOXX reached 183 low in 10/98 vs 344 low in 9/01, so there was clearly NO RETEST of 98 lows in the MOST important tech sector (SEMIs) while both NAZ and NDX have dropped in 9/01 to within 3% of their respective 10/98 lows (software and networkers also reached their 98 lows in 01 while biotechs did not). This discrepancy in Semis has bothered me throughout 2001 and it seems to imply that the bull market overvaluation excesses have not been completely eliminated during the Sept 01 lows. The MAIN CONSEQUENCE of this failure to reach more reasonable valuations in the Semi sector in Sept 01 is IMO the more LIMITED upside in Semis, NDX, and NAZ during the future upswings that would be the case otherwise. Several statistical facts quoted on SI and by other sources support this conclusion re Semis being relatively overvalued compared to the general tech sector.

Perhaps there are more benign/positive explanations for this phenomenon. If so, I am sure many would be interested to hear them.
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