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Pastimes : Market Timer's Hall of Fame
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To: Moominoid who wrote (88)2/4/2002 12:25:47 AM
From: velociraptor_  Read Replies (1) of 121
 
My long term count may or may not be correct. In fact, I have taken a stance back from the long term Nasdaq count since I really have several possibilites and none are too clear. I think the dynamics of this count are going to be a little different from the DOW and S&P because the Nasdaq is not as old. Some say that there was a 5 wave count down into the March 2001 lows as you do, but I don't think this is correct either. That puts wave 2 and 4 on different time magnitude degrees and it just doesn't look right. Also, the C wave in B would have to retrace a good part of the A drop and that means a move up to 2500 to 3000 at least. No way this is going to happen. There is most likely some other complex count here that most have not touched on yet, and probably won't be clear for a while.

Short term...yup, I could be wrong there too, but it's working so far, and I'll change it when it doesn't. Such is the life of an EW theorist. :o)

By the way, Wollie's B wave high in early 2000 is without a doubt incorrect. That puts the C wave down as some complex structure and it should be be a simple 5 wave count. Also, the drop into Sept 21st off the May high was clearly only 3 waves for all indexes and he never resolves this.
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