Velo - thanks for your comments. I often read your commentary on your website. I'm banned from posting on the e-wave workspace....
Some say that there was a 5 wave count down into the March 2001 lows as you do, but I don't think this is correct either. That puts wave 2 and 4 on different time magnitude degrees and it just doesn't look right.
I can see the other two possible counts - 5 waves till Sep01 and ABC into Sep01. The former is my main alternative, the latter is gem-x's and I think unlikely - A is short in time and I think the tech market is still way overvalued. Looking on a monthly basis wave 4 does look of similar size to 2 - I am using stochastics and other TA to make an initial cut of the waves and this is what that leads to.
Also, the C wave in B would have to retrace a good part of the A drop and that means a move up to 2500 to 3000 at least.
That's what I am looking for. I believe we are at the end of 2 of C and going higher....
There is most likely some other complex count here that most have not touched on yet, and probably won't be clear for a while.
Wolanchuk thinks the top in Mar 2001 is a B wave, then 5 down till September.
I don't buy the we are in 4 of A still either because wave 4 is just way big then. The count on your site seems to break the e-wave rules because wave 5 of the advance to Sep 00 is just too low. But that would explain why there seem to be 3 waves up from 98 as Wollie has noted and called B.
By the way, Wollie's B wave high in early 2000 is without a doubt incorrect. That puts the C wave down as some complex structure and it should be be a simple 5 wave count.
This is Prechter's count I believe - 5 waves till Sep 21, but an A of course.
Also, the drop into Sept 21st off the May high was clearly only 3 waves for all indexes and he never resolves this.
I agree on that, that's one reason I have April as the end of A.
Short term...yup, I could be wrong there too, but it's working so far, and I'll change it when it doesn't. Such is the life of an EW theorist. :o)
I think wave 3 is beginning but it is not very convincing so far. Things are at another critical juncture.
My own autoregressive indicator shows something is about to happen - very similar to just before the wave 3 of 1 in October, but it could be a move down instead....
News Corp rose here against the offshore NAS trend that tends to drive it - seems to have made a nice bottom yesterday. This is one indicator that we are about to move up. Sometimes it leads the NAS instead of follows. So I made a small better on up....
David |
