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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: MSI who wrote (26408)2/4/2002 2:38:07 AM
From: Psycho-Social  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Demographic Pressures:
One of my working assumptions is that the long term course of the Stock Market is determined primarily by the demographic profile. Long term investors for retirement don't invest because earnings and productivity are expected to go up, they invest because its time to prepare for retirement. When the number of people entering the prime retirement savings yrs outnumber the # entering retirement, all is well. When the momentum shifts toward a smaller surplus of 40 somethings, and eventually turns negative, all is not well. How well the economy does is not particularly relevant, except that eventually, as stock prices fall, and earnings rise, the dividend yield can put a floor under the Market. We're light years away from that point right now.
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