Hi The Prophet; Re: "RDRAM has not been "dipping"; DDR has been rising." Funny, my figures show that RDRAM is not at the lowest price it has ever been at, $72 per 256MB RIMM: #reply-16998188
The really funny thing about this is that you come back from the dead to try and claim victory despite the fact that the RDRAM premium over DDR has already climbed back over 45%. As well as the fact that RMBS is clawing its way down to a new 90-day grave:
siliconinvestor.com
Here's another one of your great posts on this subject:
The Prophet, May 12, 2001
1. Bilow: RDRAM will never come within 36% of the cost of DDR.
2. Samsung's Hughes said that the prices for RDRAM will be dropping significantly throughout the rest of the year. "By the end of 2001, there will be no price differential between RDRAM and DDR DRAM," he said. "We are really interested in moving both technologies into the mainstream." At the moment he said that Samsung is shipping between five and 10 times as many RDRAM chips as DDR DRAMs, although that figure fluctuates monthly.#reply-15791301
BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!! LOL!!! If you'd paid attention to what I'd said back then you'd have avoided quite the (continuing) loss on RMBS.
Another thing I might as well rub in is in my original post that started all this:
Bilow, March 26, 2001
Hi TheProphet; As I've stated repeatedly, RDRAM isn't going to get as cheap as 50% more expensive than SDRAM. By comparison, DDR will be around 10% over SDRAM around a year from now, and sooner in the agreements between the memory makers and their customers. #reply-15563086
The situation now is that DDR is only about 8% over SDRAM, at the chip level. (See #reply-16998194 for the price series, which has been stable for a week already, you liar and loser. Of course the ratio will continue to fluctuate in the future.) Eventually chip prices will be reflected in DIMM pricing, so we can be certain that the DDR premium over SDRAM is going to continue to contract.
The other half of my prediction was that RDRAM would never get to within a 50% premium over SDRAM. I can't price RDRAM chips because there is (STILL!!!) no spot market for them, but RDRAM RIMMs are still at a 128% premium over SDRAM DIMMs: #reply-16998188 .
Also it's probably time to remind you that you already took credit (perhaps a wee bit prematurely) for winning the bet, LOL!!!
The Prophet, April 10, 2001
By the way, I think you have already lost this DDR bet. Given that spot pricing of RDRAM for 128 MB is now under $1, the odds are that the OEMs are paying roughly 80 cents or less a meg. That is probably already within 36% of DDR. There is very little spot market for RDRAM yet because all of the supply is used for OEMs; in contrast, DDR really needs to be sold in the spot market at this juncture. #reply-15639856
My sarcastic reply:
Ah, be a sport. You know that RDRAM is the mainstream memory of the future and that since it is the standard, all memory sold will be RDRAM, right? So even though I continue to use the linked in numbers from PriceWatch rather than your fantasy numbers and magic thinking, you'll still win the bet eventually, right?
So be a man, suck in your gut, and calmly wait for RDRAM to come down in price on PriceWatch. Heck it has to someday, right? After Micron, Hyundai, Infineon, Nanya and IBM quit making DDR and start making RDRAM, it will come down in price, won't it?
Don't worry, The Prophet. Events will prove you right in the end. Rambus will prevail in the legal contest, even if they lose the first trial. RDRAM will eventually be the standard memory, even though DDR beat it to the spot market. You're going to win, just hold on! Remember, the darkest part of the night is just before the dawn, and it's going to be a Rambus future! All Roads Lead To Rambus! (Except, perhaps, the road to the spot market.) #reply-15639932
Okay, ten months ago your excuse for their being no spot market for RDRAM chips was that "all of the supply is used for OEMs". Now that nearly a year has gone by and still there is no spot market what's your excuse now?
-- Carl
P.S. What's particularly laughable about this is that you claim to be a lawyer, but you forced into the unenvious position of having to ignore the reality of this statement: "Okay, the only restriction is that RDRAM prices are allowed to briefly dip below that limit due to over production issues, but such gluts will not last longer than 3 months." What limit is it that RDRAM prices are allowed to dip below? That's right, 35% over DDR prices. |
