Mike: Re LSVI
Did you hear that Duty Free Intl getting bought out? Maybe some idea of take over value, since maybe in similar business. Using AAII Stock Investor data and CNBC valuation of buyout at 678M, I figure this is 678/547 = 1.24 times last 12 month's revenue or, for LSVI 1.24 * 84.3 / 8.5M shares = 12.30/share.
AAII has it in industry 0963 (Retail (specialty non-apparel)) with industry PEG at .5 as opposed to the .98 you indicated (that's their broad sevices (09) sector = 1). As you indicated other valuations are undervalued, like PE, Price/Book, Price/Cashflow at around 1/2 of the industry average.
I did a NAIC SSG on it and using eps growth rate of 10% (from zacks), I got
current price: 6
5 year average pe range 26.5 - 13.1
current pe based on last 12 months eps 9.8
pe base on next 12 months projected eps: 8.9
upside/downside 5.7
Project 5 year total return 28.1
Zoning 3.5<Buy<9.2
That looks very good.
Big, very obvious concern is the negative growth in earnings (-13) over last 5 years. S&P Data has:
year eps
1991 .78
1992 .62
1993 .49
1994 .44
1995 .11
Note that Zack's earnings momentum rates it a 4 (mild sell) (not the analysts ratings) and I'm not enamored of the 10% projected 5 year growth by a single analyst.
I'll think I'll wait to see more the positive results of the turnaround in EPS. Or maybe after a hurricane (see below) price down around 4.
re: Weather. I subscribe to a cassette based investment service Investors Hotline, and occasionally they have on weather experts - like, i believe, people who do projections for futures trading. My impression it that for the next few years that we are due for more volitile weather, rather than unusually mild weather in the 70's and 80's. Volcano's or some such. Could be big factor.
What's with Alaska? Are their exec's frostbitten and sunburned <g>?
Minor point - there is no way I could read the yellow when I printed out the web page - and i have a fairly good HP 855C. I downloaded and edited the html to kill the colors and then printed. Recommend change to more printable color - up to you.
My opinion only.
Good Investing,
jim garrison |
