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Strategies & Market Trends : Complacency Indexes

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To: TechTrader42 who started this subject2/4/2002 4:27:54 PM
From: TechTrader42   of 1487
 
Here are the CI's after the close:

ST Naz CI: 62.277, 93.096
MT Naz CI: 62.361, 93.096
LT Naz CI: 93.148, 98.743

ST S&P CI: 37.303, 85.662
MT S&P CI: 37.303, 85.662
LT S&P CI: 85.514, 96.687

There's room for them to go lower, of course, particularly the LT ones. Keep in mind, though, that they can reverse at any point. Also, it's important that the Naz closed above 1850. (On the other hand, it could be argued that it's significant that the Naz went slightly below 1850 intraday.)

The SPX could test 1081. The Dow could test support at 9529.

Shorter-term stochastics (%K) for the Naz reached 0 intraday -- another reason why there could be a bounce in the Naz. Also, QQQ reached the -1/8 level in MM-type charts.

So while I have no idea whether there will be a bounce or not, trades seem more risky at this point, since the market could easily go either way in the short term. Maybe there will be a dead cat bounce, maybe not. S'all guessing. Who knows?
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