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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: DlphcOracl who wrote (26898)2/4/2002 5:55:43 PM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Prescient comments from Barton Biggs on CNBC:

Brief summary as follows:

1. Market decline is coincident with decreasing popularity of Goerge Dubyah and the fading illusion of bipartisanship in Congress brought on by Sept. 11. Interestingly, this was a subtle point made by Jim Rogers (former Quantum hedge fund guru) upon his return from his world-wide trip. When Maria Bartiromo interviewed him about one month ago, he mentioned that he thought markets would decline this year because President Bush's popularity had peaked. His prescient observation is that market declines often accompanying declining presidential popularity ratings. (My opinion, FWIW --look for George Dubyah's ratings to continue to decline as the Republican administration becomes more closely associated with Enron in the minds of the public and VP Cheney maintains his pompous stance of "separation of powers" in stonewalling the GAO investigation into Enron and the administration).

2. Biggs also notes that the Enron effect is serious, long-lasting, and will continue to cast a pall on the market. The effect is that it will lead to stricter standards by accounting firms due to fear of litigation and that this will cause numerous companies to report less than stellar earnings throughout the year.

3. Market is still very overvalued.

4. Biggs sees a retest of the September 22 lows, with a trading range between those lows and the Dec./January highs over the next 6-12 months until these accounting issues are resolved and investor confidence is restored to the market.
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