Rydex Total Assets Update for Monday, February 4th, 2002:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 227.3 Million**BULLISH Inversion
SPX Short- URSA 280.4 Million**BULLISH Highest Close
Since 10/18/01
NDX Long - OTC 861.3 Million**BULLISH Lowest Close
Since 10/31/01
NDX Short- ARKTOS 156.1 Million**BULLISH Highest close
since 09/18/2000
RUT 2000 - MIKROS 44.3 Million**BULLISH
XAU Precious Metals 82.4 Million**BEARISH Highest Close
Since 10/08/01
XOI Energy 15.4 Million**BULLISH
OSX Energy Services 23.4 Million**BULLISH
BKX Banking 18.6 Million**BULLISH
BTK Biotech 238.4 Million**BULLISH Lowest Close
Since 09/26/01
Money Market 1.607 BILLION**BULLISH Double Overbought
Highest Close Since 09/21/01
*******************************************
Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index)
SPX Long - TITAN 89.3 Million Inversion
SPX Short- TEMPEST 165.9 Million**BULLISH All Time Highs
NDX Long - VELOCITY 169.7 Million**BULLISH Lowest Close
since 10/31/01
NDX Short- VENTURE 230.6 Million**BULLISH All Time Highs
*********************************************
Money Market TA hits 9/21/01 market low cash levels.
XAU goes parobolic as it has books its highest close XAU 65.25 since May 21st, 2001 (XAU 65.79). The five day RSI closed above triple overbought (90.31) while the more stringent test the 21 day RSI closed above the overbought (70.87) which is a rare feat for any index to overcome. If it takes out XAU 66.55 tomorrow, XAU 68.10 area is within reach and will take XAU above quadruple overbought levels before profit taking will come in. After successfully scalping gold stocks and Rydex XAU index for well over a year, I took my eye off the ball and missed a monster rally. But I am confident XAU and gold stocks will pull back at least to neutral on the 5 day RSI which is in the XAU 57.50 - 60 range.
Rydex Sentiment numbers above speak for themselves and if tomorrow is down I am confident AAII polls will show Bulls back below 48 and Bears back at 30 level on Wednesday when the report is released.
SPX has a 50 - 50 shot of closing in on SPX 1,060 intraday area like a homing pigeon in the next two trading days. I will like to take a look at the market technicals and sentiment read if this materializes.
If by chance we close below SPX 1,050(at this or some later 2002 date), capitulation will clearly unwind positions and we will head down to dead man zone SPX 1,016 - 1,018 before reversing hard back up. And it is quite conceivable we may need this kind of whiplashing to create the level of panic similar to 9/21 lows.
For the broad market, I see good elastic support at DOW 9,460 area and COMP 1,770 for intraday lows over the next two trading days before we reverse back up.
If we are in and A-B-C type rally, wave C should shoot UP right out of the blocks tomorrow within the first 90 minutes of trading as we are severely oversold on an hourly basis.
Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN
Best Regards, J.T. |
