On the bright side...
1.Don't the new accounting changes implemented at QCOM mean that QCOM's balance sheet will be among the easier to read and understand? In today's Enron-obsessed environment, shouldn't the market eventually reward companies with clear financials?
2.How can anyone say that QCOM's growth prospects are dimming until we see what kind of reception 1x gets in the marketplace? If there really isn't a market for this stuff, then how do you explain its success in the one location with a fully deployed commercial network? Which also happened to be one of the most saturated 2g markets in the world?
3.What significance do we attach to the fact that, of all wireless vendors, QCOM is making the most progress in advancing WCDMA to a deployable stage?
4.Won't the capital starvation MM speaks of, to the extent that it persists, tilt the balance more in the favor of the deployment of wireless as opposed to wired networks?
5.Wall Street no longer likes "story stocks". But its no longer a story stock when you have maintained your earnings at around $1.00/share through a tech/telecom focused meltdown that has seen the likes of Cisco earn close to zero; and when you have resolved all meaningful IPR challenges in your favor; and the technology you developed, own the IPR to, and for which you have the greatest aggregation of engineering talent in the world, will over the next 5-8 years be deployed around the world, starting this year.
6.The telecom glut , if it exists, is in long haul fiber. It never has been in wireless. Wireless is, to the contrary, capacity constrained where it exists, and as stated above, will be the network model of choice where neither it nor a wired network currently exists.
7. What if Gilder is right about Soma and Narad? Has anyone looked into this further? What would the implications be for QCOM and CDMA deployment?
8. Is 39 times this year's recession depressed 2g cdma earnings really an outrageous price to pay for this company? Is it wildly overvalued at this level? Is this and last years earnings even a remote analog for a base from which to calculate QCOM earnings in the future?
9.A wise man once said that you better not bet on the end of the world because its only going to happen once.Once you factor out the short-term noise about Enron, the capital markets, Japan, Argentina, the stock market bubble,terrorism, one is left with the inescapable fact that virtually all of the uncertainty concerning the CDMA franchise has been removed. Compare CDMA's position in wireless today to where it was in 1998. Guys, we were right. However Tero wants to spin it, and however creative the Europeans become with their nomenclature, 3g will be the golden age, not of GPRS, not of GSM, not of TDMA, and not of EDGE. 3g will be the golden age of CDMA.
10.QCOM annually is voted one of the greatest places to work in America. This is a big ho-hum, right? I don't think so. I think it says volumes about the quality of management and its commitment to retaining the best people in an industry where the importance of intellectual capital cannot be overstated.
11. The stock is getting clobbered on hiccups of no significance to the long term investment thesis for this stock, which is more solidly in place than ever.
12. I have held HD for a decade. During that time, I had stretches as long as 36 months where I was flat or down. Pull up a chart. I'm doing ok.
Now, I don't want to make predictions as to how long it will take for us to justifiably eclipse our all time high in QCOM,but I feel really good about handsomely outperforming the market from these levels over the next 5-7 years.
As always, I invite ,and I am sure I will receive, contrary opinions. |
