"I am continually baffled at how people (some of whom are otherwise very smart) who believe in manipulation and inside information automatically also believe that this will cost them money, rather than provide them with a windfall, if they take a position."
Excellent point.
Unfortunately, the next level of self-destructive thinking can still take over - as in, "OK, even if IT does work both ways, it's beyond me and my equipment..." or "Well, it's essentially random - didn't some smart guy say so?" Making things even worse - especially for a trader who lacks confidence in his or her methods - is a) the house edge in commissions and fees, and, in my opinion more dangerous, b) precisely because price movement is consequential and probabilistic, rather than random, a poorly executed system is very likely to achieve worse than random results. It's quite possible that even a trader who's aware of the psychological factor, but lacks intellectual self-confidence, will end up in a double bind/death spiral: "Because I make bad trades, I must have psychological problems. Because I have psychological problems, I make bad trades."
Small wonder the majority lose. |
