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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (3221)2/5/2002 7:06:49 PM
From: Lee  Read Replies (2) of 3536
 
Henry, Thread,

I am wondering people's thoughts on the death of the stimulus package. My optimistic nature wants to believe the worst is behind us. But common sense says otherwise.

· Q4 was about the $300-$600 tax refunds coupled with 0% auto financing
· The housing market remains strong, but rising unemployment is not strong support
· Production numbers are turning, but capacity utilization has rarely been this low the life of the series, so this crimps pricing and corporate spending
· Upward bias in the dollar crimps domestic producers

I suppose one could argue that defense spending is a stimulus package in another name. But its also dislocation and disruption as resources shift, so near term negative. At the state level we are seeing tax increases and layoffs. Lower auto production, airplane production, and the need to fill unused capacity is a drag on this economy. I think the feds should not be so quick to toss out the stimulus package.

Lee
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