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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (50200)	2/5/2002 8:45:36 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Cha2, << Nokia? At Los Vegas who would bet that way? >> Someone who instead of betting in Las Vegas has done serious DD, has looked at their balance sheet. and invests in Kings who have greater than 2X market share (and still growing it) in their core business? <g> Still looking at the world through cdma2000 colored glasses I see. <ggg> << There is really no question that there is no way to win against Qualcomm's technological lead. >> Their technological lead has not translated into a technology adoption lead. What do you think of Qualcomm delaying MSM6200 (ZIF WCDMA with GSM/GPRS) sampling one quarter and the MSM6300 (ZIF 1xRTT with GSM/GPRS) two full quarters? While I am sure there are very valid reasons for this, and the market for dual-mode WCDMA will be small at the outset, three vendors are committed to having dual-mode handsets on the street H2 02 (Sony Ericsson, Nokia and NEC) and there is a possibility that Siemens and Motorola will as well. Obviously if sampling isn't till Q3, they are unlikely to be using Qualcomm silicon in their initial models. If they don't use them in their initial models the question becomes will they use them in later models. Qualcomm has a target of better than 50% of the WCDMA chip market. They do not however enjoy the architectural lock they have on the cdma2000 side by virtue of controlling the architecture and standard. As for the MSM6300, I think it is a critical chip for Unicom's migration from IS-95 to 1xRTT and I have some concerns about takeup of cdmaOne against GSM in China in the interim. This is certainly not the end of the world, and neither chip was expected to produce revenue this year, but I am candidly disappointed in the delay. No early mover advantage on the 6200 and critical delay on the 6300. Best, - Eric -

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