I personally can't get comfortable w/ HAL; too much unquantifiable risk for my blood. Then again, I thought that same thing when MO was $20 back a couple of years ago, and missed a great investment.
Long ELN (trade), QLTI, IMCL (trade, likely out on this news tonite) (note to self: wtf is wrong w/ me, long 3 biotechs??<g>), PZZA, PDE (small), GETY for earnings tomorrow. Looking real close at Hanover Compressor (HC) on the long side here; they were a long-time short target (written them up many times here) that I covered at +/- $13 1/2, went clown long to +/- $15 and sold. Stock back to $10. They have off-balance sheet issues, BUT like Elan while I think the accounting is VERY aggressive (and thus my prior short) I don't think its criminal and they're well below book right now which I think MIGHT be a reasonable proxy for fair value.
What are you doing with AOL around here?
Also looking at International Speedway (ISCA) as a long hedge. $100mm of free cash this year, a lot of it already booked via the TV deal. For a $2-ish billion market cap. That's not bad (relative) value.
And don't think I'm getting soft on you guys. Still short most of my long-standing list of deadbeat credit, residential real estate, various accounting frauds, bad retail/restaurant and other special sit subscription businesses w/ declining deferred revenue. No gold ;(
Cheers |
