Commodities - The Coming Bull Market Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market

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To: craig crawford who wrote (1031)	2/6/2002 11:20:16 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) of 1643

Gold headed for $335 level m1.mny.co.za Posted: 2002/02/06 Wed 15:19 JOHANNESBURG - As if South African gold miners weren't already riding the crest of a wave along comes a phenomenal surge in the metal's dollar spot price beyond the key $300 per ounce level. The likes of Anglogold, Gold Fields and Harmony all recently reported exceptional results for the final quarter of 2001 due in the main to sharp rand weakness. That in turn translates into a healthier gold price in rand terms. Gold's $16 improvement since the start of this week means that gold miners can now sell an ounce of bullion for R3473, a 6% premium in 48 hours. At the margin an increase of that order is significantly magnified and means that the rand gold price has jumped more than 50% in just five months. While speculators might be tempted to short-sell gold at these relatively lofty levels, Gregor Krall, the technical analyst at NIB Securities, warns that the rally may not yet be over. In fact Krall's charting methodologies suggest that "we're heading for anywhere between $315 and $335 so I'm still bullish on gold." Krall adds: "There's a small triangle formation and the break out was actually at $288 per ounce and that projects strength to about $325. Taking longer-term patterns into consideration, Krall says based on a high of $418 in February 1996 and the recent low in the order of $255 "a retracement of that downward move gives you levels of about $315 and $255." He adds: "I would think that were heading towards the 50% retracement levels of about $335," which was also the case when gold spiked in October 1999. Krall admits to being a gold bull "for quite a while now" and that its "nice to see it finally happening." He does add the proviso that he hopes this is "not a sign of a fragile financial system." Here is a graph, supplied by Krall, highlighting gold's key technical levels and future price forecasts:

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