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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.83+3.9%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Pink Minion who wrote (10094)2/6/2002 3:04:10 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
>>Not only do you need to have demand growth, but you need hypergrowth because of the ASP decline. <<

ASPs typically go up, actually. Though the cost/function goes down, the price per chip goes up. A P4 costs more than a P3, a 256 MB DRAM costs more than a 128 MB DRAM.

(I've posted the statistics on this at least twice in the past. Did someone perhaps save them so I don't have to dig them out again?)

The share of chips in PCs has been declining for several years, particularly due to telecommunications growth and partly due to handheld devices, automotive systems, etc. That trend is likely to continue.

Moreover, *one* down year in PC sales hardly indicates the permanent death of the PC market. IMO, it mostly indicates a major recession, combined with a flood of almost-new surplus PCs from dot.bombs, combined with fairly recent upgrades due to Y2K.

Katherine
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