Terry, Terry, Terry...
re: ["As Jim Brown said about end zone dancing - act like you've been there before."]
As Yogi Berra said:
"if you can (or did) do it - it aint bragging"
And as Leo Sayer so aptly said:
" I can dance, I can dance, I can dance ~ "
So, as Steve Martin said:
"Exxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxcuuuuuuse Me"
I/We were riducled...literally chastised for making a portfolio weighted shift from atop the Oilpatch cycle to rotate to and buy into the abyss of the bottom of the Gold/Silver cycle in late 2000.
We were laughed at; called names, poked fun at and had every lame-assed platitude & goldbuggery sterotype thrown at us that was in existance... but; we had 3 things going for us that you guys didn't...
We were RIGHT and we also had PATIENCE & absolute CONFIDENCE.
The shift from "black" to "yellow" gold was what started the thread wars here on this once productive thread.
After seeing the numbers on the chart linked below; it isn't only our obligation to point out the folly of the 'bungholio & Kodiakbull$hitter gang; but it's our duty to do so - even given their wannabe goldbug act of late aside...(vbg).
I/We chose to not buy into the "new paradigm" - "this time it's different" - "extended cycle" - "Energy Crisis" - "Nat Gas Mania" spiel spun by Matt Simmons & the other oilpatch pundits.
I/We took the "macro" approach and were among the first to dare mouth the words - "global recession"...and warn that a "global recession" - not only trumps a full house; but an oilpatch cycle, even a domestic nat gas crisis & all things new paradigm as well...
I/We pounded the table endlessly that the oilpatch is, was and will allways be; first & foremost - a cyclical sector...and that you can't buy, sell, or hold 'em like growth stocks.
I/We dared to not just take profits in the midst of the Nat Gas mania of Dec 2000; but to go short as well.
I/We saw the top of the oilpatch cycle and the near simultaneous bottom formation of the gold/silver cycle and we made the call... and the call was a 500 Ft. Ruthian Home Run off the upper-deck facade of Yankee Stadium - leaving the broad market & the other major sector indicies traded by threadsters here in the dust... ie:
siliconinvestor.com
1. up + 97% ~ HUI (unhedged gold index)
2. up + 48 ~ Xau
3. DOWN - 5% the DOW
4. DOWN - 6% the XOI (where people should have parked oil $)
5. DOWN - 20% the S&P 500
6. DOWN - 30% the XNG (Nat Gas index) so much for new paradigms huh ?
7. DOWN - 36% the OSX
8. DOWN - 44% the NASDQ
9. DOWN - 55% the QQQ's
...what fool's we were huh ?
From one index double/triple cycle in the OSX to another in the HUI - directly into a 2 year bear market... not bad returns for a group of online pikers 'eh(vbg).
Terry D; you and all the other money runners bought into all this hype & hyperbole... and ignored the lessons of history.
You chastised gold, because everyone else did... not because of reality, or fundamental drivers... you poo-poo'd the price manipulation of gold and ignored the bloated-floated US Dollar & Equity markets and if you think DOW 9000 and NAZ 1400 brought pain... just wait for the rest of this contraction to play out... the debt-orgy of the late 90's is now imploding and the chain reaction will shake the derivatives markets and we will lose 1, if not a couple of major Wall Street Investment Banks... when, not if... and then say hello to my little friend:
...the NIKKEI-DEJA VU all over again - US version.
The US Dollar is the next pig to collapse - bank on it and put a fork in it... it's done.
ciao~
and PS:
"I" the Slide-o-rama-phi-slamma-jamma of funkadelia; was the one who taught Billy White Shoes Johnson his original moves fwiw; so I can damn well do any version of the Yellow Fever Victory Dance I damn well please ~
;) |
