Contrary to the New York Times and Wall Street Journal's famous assertion that just 2.6 percent of the nation's fiber is in use, McGuire's statistics compiled from 29 U.S. carriers show that on the 22 most popular inter-city, long-haul routes, 3,400 out of 15,177 total fibers are "lit." That's 22 percent of the installed base of silica strands. Fourteen of the 22 routes are running at 70 percent of capacity or more. More stunning than the current figures, however, are McGuire's projections.
If by 2005 just 7 percent of U.S. businesses adopt Gigabit Ethernet connections to the Internet, the Telechoice MADCAP model shows that all the capacity on every fiber on each of the 22 most popular routes will be used up. In other words, we achieve total long-haul fiber exhaust—no small feat considering Williams, Level 3, and the other new players have so far lit between 2 and 6 fibers out of 100, depending on the route. Five percent Gig E penetration exhausts almost all the fiber currently available, and 2 percent penetration exhausts about half the routes. The success of Ethernet as the connectivity solution of choice is far and away the most important factor in "filling the pipes," more than new killer apps or anything else.
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