gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecast, Feb 7 '92.."we're close, darn close!"
Yesterday was a day I expected, and for some sick reason, as a bull, enjoyed.
The NASDAQ gapped up, than faded....not just a normal fade, but a "big push" fade down to 1805, than bottom fishers jumped in to try to prop the market up, but it failed at the close. I was screaming at the television set all day watching CNBC trying to stop these dip buyers from rallying the market (man, I hated seeing the DOW trying to rally at the close)...the VIX and put/call ratios are at levels that are getting very bullish. I'm sorry that I didn't send any intraday e-mails, but I was obssessively watching the put/call ratios and the VIX, and when you got thousands of people on an e-mail list like this, maybe those thousands of people won't try to prop the market up at the close when the VIX and put/call ratios are looking yummy ;)
I'm actually pretty happy to see action like this, because the fear gauges kept rising. The put/call ratio is at a level that looks very nice...the 10 day Moving Average is now at a stratospheric .82 and the 21 day is at .77. The last two times the put/call ratio has gotten this high in a 10 day and 21 day period was during the second half of March 2001, when the 10 day spiked up to .85, and during last Sept, when it spiked to .90. (if you're wondering when the market rallied in Jan 2001, the put/call ratios were very low, the 10 day got as high as only .65, as well as April-May 2000, which was extremely low, the highest 10 day was around .60.) Of course, these were precursors to 700+ point rallies. There's honestly been only two times since the put/call ratio has been like this in the past few years....the more fear creeps into the market, and the more puts that are bought, the stronger the rally will be when things turn. I would
The levels I'm watching tomorrow are 1743 (.500 retracement, and approx. equal length to the percieved Wave "A" down in a zigzag. Wave A = 220 pts, Wave C = 1959 -220 = 1739), and 1783 (the bottom of a previous Wave 4)....I would like to see 1659, because that would truly bring about a huge crescendo of fear and put buying...I'd like to see all this selling all done with fast, as opposed to a long annoying grind down with faded rally after faded rally after faded rally. The faster the sellers capitulate, the faster the potential wave 3 rally can unfold.
As an added bonus is what's happened after hours....CSCO is getting wacked, and the NASDAQ Futures are down 20-27....It's about time CSCO's dropped, it's barely retraced .382 of it's entire upmove from Sept. I wouldn't mind seeing those futures drop down harder...it's better than one of those annoying gap up and fffffade away drops.
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