Breaking out in acne, maybe. I lurk here now and again to read ya'lls thinking, but I don't see anything but pure hope and speculation, not one rational reason for these inflated stock prices. From another board.
To:KevinThompson who wrote (4633)
From: Lone Star Thursday, Feb 7, 2002 10:31 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 4688
Kevin, look at KLAC, I believe more overpriced than AMAT, NVLS, etc. Like you, am short, cannot believe this sector has held, no increased, in the face of horrible fundamentals and every custoomer of theirs stating in no uncertain terms that cap ex is going down again this year.
The semi equips continue layoffs, at this point very painful to-the-bone, which they would not do unless they were convinced harder times ahead. I am a 20+ vet of this industry, have never seen anything this bad. I know of no fab presently over 50% capacity most around 25-30%. Also, a new wrinkle, the market is utterly awash with used/refurbed equipment selling at huge discounts to new that will have to absorbed first. Why? Because even companies who in the past would never consider used, are: budgets are very tight and they are squeezing like crazy.
I am not much of a trader, so I assume the latest spate of upgrades is a scam, to get the big clients out, but I do not understand this market at all anymore. I used to be a simple LTB&H, but I see now that is useless if stocks will not go down to there fair value during bad times. |
