tell me it can't get any worse?!?!?
Connor, look at the chart <g> The Nasdaq fell right out of bed today.
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It's going to get worse before it gets better I think. Especailly with earnings season ending, that's what kept us up recently IMO. But I'm sure there will be scalpable bounces along the way. I've been posting these charts and bearish warnings for weeks, Long before the EMA rollover was confirmed, when it was only hinting of a rollover on the NDX. And those VIX/VXN warnings last week were huge red flags. Today was a real breakdown at the close.
The battle from below all those EMAs could take a long time to get back over, EMA resistance is pretty tough, especially on a daily chart. And we are back in short all rallies mode, as stocks moving up are usually just moving on short squeezes and those don't last long at all. And if the market remains weak they shorts will short every pop until it gains strength again.
It's going to take some kind of positive catalyst or incredibly oversold levels to move this market up again soon, and it's going to be a battle all the way.
I just cannot think of anything that will rally it - and keep it up right now, just a few oversold short covering rallies here and there. Jeez all those interest rate cuts couldn't even hold it up and they are over. And all the positive economic indicators have done little to help, as this accounting scandal has scared all the people away who were JUST getting ready to get back in!
The only thing that's going to move it up and keep it up is great earnings growth from companies, which will only come if the economy really picks up again. And the fact that most of them have reports full of pro-forma BS numbers still means it's going to take even longer. First they have to come clean, then they need their REAL earnings to increase.
The ones with good (and honest) earnings will shine, they will stand out from the crowd when we do have a rally. So we will be watching out for them!
I hate yo say it, but I think that ECRI report of two weeks ago was a fluke, saying the recession is over. Last weeks report did not confirm, but we get another one tomorrow morning so we shall see! We could be headed for a double dip recession here...
And with that said, we will probably rally like hell tomorrow <VBG>
Probably a little end of week short covering as we've been down for five straight days...in the form of a swift reversal that sends the shorts running. You could tell today shorts are getting nervous staying short after 5 down days. |
