NVLS ($36-$43) P/E 22...beats & warns.. Company reports Q4 earnings of $0.12 per share, $0.01 better than the consensus; reports Q4 revenues of $200 mln versus the consensus estimate of $203 mln.
Update -- Detail: Shipments of $162.4 million in Q4 represent a decline of 15.8% compared to $192.9 million reported in Q3. Deferred revenue at the end of Q4 was $140.0 million, a decrease of 23.4% from $182.7 million at the end of Q3. Backlog at December 31, 2001 was $266.5 million, a decrease of 58.6% from the $643.8 million at December 31, 2000.
Update -- On conference call, company guides lower on EPS to $(0.10) vs Multex consenus of $(0.03); however, revenue is expected to be $150 mln vs Multex consensus of $144 mln...stock at 37.10.
Update -- On call, company says it expects Q1 bookings of $130 mln and shipments of $130 mln for a book-to-bill of one....Company says "expect a substantial reduction in inventory over the next few quarters."...stock at 37.20.
Update -- On call, company says EPS break-even is now around $175 mln, which is an increase from the mid-qtr call's estimate of $150-$160 mln....stock at 37.23.
Some more color on Q4 EPS. As we reported earlier, the company reported $0.12, a penny better than expected. However, during Q&A, company said that Q4 was helped by a reduction in management bonuses. In other words, the expense accrual charged in Q2 and Q3 was reversed in Q4 giving NVLS a bump on the EPS line. Without this bump, the quarter would have been about break-even, which is around $0.11 shy of consensus. In fairness, it's not clear whether the analysts had already worked this event into their estimates, but it is something to consider.
During Q&A, company clarified its earlier statement (see 17:04 InPlay). Management said it disclosed the reversal of the accrual at the mid-qtr call. However, whether it was fully accounted for in analyst estimates remains uncertain because it was a sell side analyst who asked the question initially and there was enough confusion for a follow-up question on the topic from another analyst. Probably a few analysts did not include it. Bottom line, probably a non-issue as stock is not reacting. |
