Based on recent IT troughs for the Dow/SPX, I expect the
window for the market bottom will be from February 22 to
April 19, or March 22 plus or minus 4 weeks. I haven't
checked the lengths of the peaks-to-troughs but they appear
to range from 6 weeks to 13 weeks. So, the week of Feb 22
is likely to be the earliest date and would also fit with
the tendency for market to trough in the middle of the week
after options expiration and before the end of the month
markup. Also like the March date as that date is also the
last date for settlement for the this quarter for Japan
institutions to close their books. I think they're on T+5.
I've noticed the last several times in March and September
when the repatriation was an issue, the market bottomed on
the 5th business day before the end of the month. The
April period may be the last low, if any.
26-week Dow cycle troughs
Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379
Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks
Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks
Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks
Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks
Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks
Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks
sample size 6
total 156 weeks
average 26 weeks
st dev 2 weeks
Feb 22, 01 22 weeks minus 2 standard deviations
Mar 22, 01 26 weeks average cycle length
Apr 19, 01 30 weeks plus 2 standard deviations |
