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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (10192)2/8/2002 1:45:46 PM
From: High Country Trader  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
Hi J.T., this market the past two years has done a good job of trashing "historical market odds." For instance the bottom(?) on September 21 didn't meet past historical bottoms based on most sentiment indicators. I was as bearish as could be in late September because sentiment hadn't come close to reaching levels achieved at past bottoms but because of price action had to get long that first Wednesday in October. One thing I have to remember here is that in 1973/74 sentiment got real bearish and stayed real bearish for long periods of time and without any bounce in the market. We may just get to the point where this market someday keeps grinding lower and lower even though the entire world is seemingly bearish and the sentiment indicators are forever at extremes of bearishness. An extreme upside momentum day would probably get me long but would prefer to see the Consensus bullish percentage below 20% for a couple weeks before that occurs.
One of the biggest rah, rah, bulls of the past decade and who remained resolutely bullish as the Nasdaq went from 5000 to below 2000 has inexplicably thrown in the bullish towel. I never thought I would live to see that day and that it would be a major buying opportunity. Now I'm not so sure. It sure is a sick market. Someday I should tell the story of my ultimate contrary indicator - my friends Richard and Noreen (who are presently still long)
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