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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (10203)	2/8/2002 5:36:14 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) of 19219

... WOW J.T. ... what a rally for the SPH2 to close at 1096 ... after it made three failed attempts to get down through 1080 today, it headed north hard and fast ... now we have a solid up day after five straight down days ... do we now rally? ... and if we do, will it get past 1120 (and even up to and through the 200 DMA)? ... or will it falter at 1120, head back down and challenge 1077, and possibly 1054? ... ... or does it head straight back down for another test of 1077? ... ___________________________________ ... I read the three articles by Anirvan Banerji of ECRI with interest ... (1) ... Mr Banerji called the coming recession correctly on 09/13/00, but got it right for the wrong reasons (in my opinion) ... food and energy price inflation leading to "a sharp slowdown in consumer spending" and consequently, a recession (was his call) ... and wrong ... we have not had a real slow down in consumer spending even yet ... but we will ... (2) ... all of the writings - including "a special free look" - seem more in tune with a sales pitch to get readers to subscribe to RealMoney.com or to sell services for ECRI ... not that I am saying anything negative about ECRI ... I was not previously familiar with them ... ___________________________________ ... as to why I continue to be biased negatively on both the economy and equities (both U.S. and the world) ... not in order of importance, but just as I thought of them ... and even though you did not ask ... <G> ... valuations of equities are very high relative to the end of other bear markets ... ... the housing market has hardly noticed the economic slow down and is so strong, that it has nothing to recover from ... in fact, it is due to slump and probably will ... ... ditto for sales of autos ... ... both corporate debt and consumer debt are extraordinarily high ... ... we have not had a major bank crisis yet based on debt, but we will... ... the entire "world" is in a recession at the same time ... ... the dollar is much too strong relative to U.S. balance of payments ... ... Japan is not helping anyone ... ... profits are not going to improve by much for quite a long time ... end of 2002, beginning of 2003 at the earliest ... ... there will be more Enrons as we move forward ... hopefully not as bad ... ... how will consumers drive the economy forward when they are already deeply in debt? ... is there any logic to just one quarter of negative GDP after the biggest bull market and equity bubble in history ... ... I constantly hear comparisons of the current period to all the previous recessions and bear markets since WWII .. when we are in the middle of a period much more like the booms and busts of the mid and late 1800s through the 1930s (and no, I do NOT expect to have unemployment reach 25% as it did in the 30s) ... ... and a last personal note FWIW ... I sold almost all my stocks in January of 2000 ... I have had solid success buying S&P puts beginning in July of 2000 .... my net gains were 218% in 1999, 29% in 2000 and 17% in 2001 ... (about 80% of it in IRAs) ... and I am 75% cash ... Ken Wilson

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