re: Japan which still seems to be reeling:
Maybe all we're seeing here is a shift in where growth is happening. In Asia, in the 1950s through 1990, Japan was the center of growth. Going forward, the growth will now happen in China (if they can peacefully make the transition to democracy) and India (if they don't fracture violently into their constituent ethnic parts, like every other multinational nation has), and a collection of smaller East Asian nations (Malaysia, Korea, etc.). Applied's management is certainly making the bet that China is where the growth is.
I've been reading, for 10 years now, convincing arguments about the immanent collapse of Japan. These articles are all well-reasoned, and full of impressive facts and historical analogies. And they have been wrong, year after year. Japan's capacity for "muddling through" seems infinite. There always seems to be one more stop-gap patch-up job that puts off the day of reckoning.
IMO, the future for Japan is going to be more of the same. It's a boring prediction: no growth, no collapse, no resolution of systemic problems, no spectacular finale. A series of events labelled " final crisis", which aren't. Just more "muddling through", while the rest of the world catches up, passes them, and gradually forgets about them. Sort of like what's happened to Argentina in the 20th Century. In the year 1900, Argentina had a per capita income higher than France. Sad that Japan seems to be travelling that same road. But, IMO, the implications for the rest of the world are underwhelming. |
