Wallace, regarding your inquiry of BMY. I'm holding my shares. My positions were acquired years ago, and it surely looks like I ought to have sold anytime in the past couple or more years - BMY is now at a four-year low.
They don't seem to be doing anything right, right now. Overpaid and/or did not do enough dd on their purchase of Imclone. Could not get their potential blockbuster Vanlev through an FDA review. And lost patent protection on an important drug.
Analysts have said the worst is over for BMY - but they were saying that when BMY was 48-50, and now BMY is at 43-44
-g-.
Normally, I'd be adding to my shares (I tried that at 55 level -- oops), but now I'm just a little too frozen to add to an already overly large position.
If you are looking at BMY, I'd guess you might be looking at others too for diversification. MRK, SGP are out of favor - so they may be candidates. You might check out BAY too, which has very recently commenced trading on the NYSE. Spekulatius' pick of PHA might work at this 36-38 level. (I keep considering buying, but I am just very afraid of the falling knives in the sector.)
I am assuming these pharmaceutical stocks will return to investors' favor. The companies have historically produced successful drugs and have sold at high multiples of eps, sales, book. However, given recent warnings by many of the companies, of earnings disappointments (declines!) and patent expirations, this year imo will be terrible for them. So there may be much more downside to these stocks than we have seen.
The question for anyone venturing into these stocks now is, imo, "How long do you plan to be in for?"
I am hoping that 2003 will be a recovery year. But who knows?
Paul S. |
