Russia produced in 2000 6,325,000 b/d of oil and in 2001 it produced 9 percent more, 6,895,000 b/d, according to the OGJ. The total for Eastern Europe and FSU is 7,896,200 in 2000 and 8.8 percent more in 2001. viz. 8,593,700. Russia's proven reserves are 48,573,000,000 bbls. Thus more than twice of those of USA. Compare these to SA's at 259,250,000,000 bbls. Iraq has 112,500,000,000 bbls and Iran has 89,700,000,000 bbls.
To the lifting costs one must add the "social cost". During the last ten years or longer, I believe that SA managed a budget surplus only in 2000. Many of Iran's fields are aging and its production dropped 15 percent between 2000 and 2001. It produced 3,180,000 b/d last year. Many of its giant fields are in secondary recovery.
Both Russians and Chinese are engaged with Iraq and developing Iraqi fields. It is the only country to be able to challenge SA in the long term having 112,500,000,000 b of reserves. That is, if SA will experience a civil war and Iraqis will be able to overthrow Saddam, Iraq will emerge as the leader of OPEC. The next 5 years will be crucial and the need for OPEC to exist will disappear, as more and more of OPEC countries will not be able to grow production and depletion in the rest of the world will take hold. This is true for Indonesia today and likely to be the case for Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela in a couple of years.
best, Seppo |
