Finally, I am not sure I understand your post, this morning, i suggested a very low probability scenario of a black monday, only if we breached yesterday's low by at least 15 naz points (or 1765, not 1865), since that did not happen, the normal February scenario is intact with minor modification (the interim low that was supposed to be at 1793 is probably at 1772, and the bounce, instead of going to 1880, I now have at 1860). Got to make "mid course corrections" when the "exact" numbers are missed. I also have the next bottom reduced to the 1720/50 area for the same reason, and also because that will get us just under (on an "overshoot) the 50% retracement of the advance from the September lows to the early January highs, it also will "serve" to close that gap from just under 1750 on the way up. By the way, I expect the next leg down to be "ragged" at the beginning, with a lot of volatility in the 1793/1835 or so area (after we reach that peak in the middle of next week) with the bulk of the decline possibly in the last week of February/early March. But I got to see how the next step up evolve first before I can develop a better short term model.
Zeev |
