i have since the beginning of year been studyimg momentum.FWIW,the momentum decreased today on the COMPX from -205 to -213.This ,per discipline,this negates today's move as a bullish move,it in fact is confirmation of more bad to come as up price and down momentum is a bearish divergence.
BTW,as ever,never fails,never,the press releases today refer to late rally as bargain hunting.I have yet to see in a standard press release ever "late rally today driven by short covering for weekend,taking their profits after a very good week for the shorts":)
But i have to smile that after 5 consecutive down days the number of people asking is this it,the turn-around??
The downtrend channel is still fully intact.
I have seen far too many short covering rallies after mid-day Friday when in a downtrend to ever be impressed.
If the rally had started at the bell and kept rolling that's a totally different matter.
The fact that the market internals were good in this circumstance,can not be evaluated as a bullish indicator.
also ,from past year,a momentum below -400 would be likely reversal signal.
Curiousity,mo was -260 on 9/10, -307 on 9/11 and -409 on 9/21 but - 461 om 4/4/2001---but even that -460 was not the low of 2001.First negative momentum of year occurred on 1/17 when COMPX closed at 1985 and has been moving downwards since. |
