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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

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To: Larry S. who wrote (38359)	2/9/2002 8:28:34 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (2) of 53068

>>My personal estimate for Corning's price is 30-40's sometime in the next 2-4 years. << I don't see that. I don't know where you expect to see the extra growth to come from to justify that price level. GLW has nearly 1 bil shares outstanding. Revenues will probably linger not much higher than what they are now, for the next few years or about $4-5 billion (back to 1999 levels). Figuring a very generous 8% net profit that's 40 cents a share max. 20 times earnings is $8.00 a share. 2 x max sales gives you a price of about $10 per share. Add in some irrational exuberance and the very top price is closer to $20 during extreme optimism. 2-4 years out I predict an average sale price closer to $15 for this company that really doesn't have much pricing power and who's revenues come much from commodity type products. I also believe that GLW is more than fairly priced at this level. Maybe a little high looking at projected earnings. Also priced at more than book and almost 2x sales they look rich. The only reason I see them move much higher is because they were much higher before. That said, the a trade here more off of emotions but not an investment op off of valuation. Just my opinion. Joe

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