Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: orkrious who wrote (28907)	2/9/2002 12:29:45 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 99280

Ork, What I noticed in the January short interest data (s of trade data about January 12) was the reduction of short positions on stocks like MSFT, INTC, CSCO, Dell -- basically the all the big caps with the odd exception here and there. On the other hand, the shorting increased on the Nasdaq mid caps...the usual suspects...in general. My original plan was to load up on the semiconductors back in Sept/Oct. I felt that Windows XP would be a catalyst. Now I think, it gave a bit of a false signal of a robust rebound and the stocks are priced for big recovery. Dell is not that bullish now and that is a bit of a warning sign, imho. I should have stuck with my original plan to sell once the belief in a big rebound became accepted a bit more. <ng> Anyone notice that Gold stocks are basically around the same levels as in mid September? Is this time any different on the trend of gold prices? I think so. More rate cuts and less optimism for a "V" shaped recovery. Traders (COT) are very short on Gold...I just think the "smart money" is going to be wrong in this case. Still think the market can go up but the relatively larger gains will come in less risky sectors. Why can't we get a major bounce in Naz? No momentum at all in money inflows; not like the days when people would be taking money on lines of credit and savings accounts and dumping it into the market. I think this last bounce from the September lows is it will make the average individual stay away from the markets..and I don't believe it will be a contrarian indicator at all. Also the risk of missing out on a major rise in the markets is very little, imho. I am still long a lot of tech but prefer to stay in the lower PE stocks (or slightly PEs but "brand names")....staying away a bit from the regular users of the pro-forma stuff. Wish I was a little less long....maybe I will get a chance to unload a few positions this week on a market bounce. Have to admit it that I am very bearish on the Nasdaq even though I have lots of long positions. I realize many are predicting a major rise in the markets but the best case that I see in the Nasdaq in the 1700 to 1900 range. Retest of lows? I think it will break if we get there. In this age, I see moves toward retest as a sign that it will break through the support...just like it did in September when we went back to "retest" the April lows. My thinking is different from the TAs in that sense. Lets hope I am wrong and the market stabilizes at this level or higher. jmho.

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