Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Warpfactor who wrote (95238)	2/9/2002 12:43:23 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Warp... fwiw; of late I've ranged from: 60%-75% gold/silver stocks 10-15% trading shorts/puts 0-30% cash Swing trading gold... the RAND has ramped So African Gold earnings to the moon of late - hence their explosion. I've sold/taken a lot (not all) of profits in HGMCY GOLD DROOY etc and rotated back to other NA laggards & cash - waiting for a profit taking pullback to average back in etc... normal "swing trading" stuff. The gold sector trades very much like the OSX cycle's of late & interestingly enough; within the same valuation range of XAU 50 - 150. The gold cycle is where the OSX cycle was in the spring of 1999... ie: the "bottom" was obviously in...ie:the OSX 45-60 quadruple bottom trading range of late 1998-early 1999...which then led to the March, or April 1999 - 4 week 50% OSX run up... of which we've just seen similarly in the XAU/HUI gold stock rally of late. ... a major run (and one to take swing trading profits from) - but yet; with much more to come over time. The XAU/HUI is in an upcycle and will be rather easily traded on "technicals" here - moving in an upward & onward stairstep fashion - just like the OSX did from it's Spring of 1999 move off that quad-bottom 45-60 range; finally exploding thru OSX 80+ to 120, then blowing off to a 140esque double top. The next "compareable" move went to OSX 120 and that's the same resistance level the XAU will test within 12-15 mos imho (and that's a smart money cyclical exit opp target)...with $350 Gold - which we WILL see... just as the likes of Jack Kemp, Larry Kudlow & Steve Forbes said we must see - as a much needed "honest" market barometer of adequate Fed liquidity. Where the "juice" will come from - is a potential event driven crisis" which may allow us to re-visit a 1979-80esque $800+ price of Gold move. ...I know.... "$800 Gold" !?!??!? - "$lider's lost it" etc.... WRONG. The literal unprecedented gold-short derivative position, the collapsing debt bubble, JAPAN and inevitable US Dollar-"when, not if" collapse... realities all make it very possible for those POG levels to be reached in an "event" crisis. Even without one... $350-380 POG will give us a double from here in the XAU/HUI. ...re: the Oilpatch; I'm just waiting patiently for another trading re-entry ie: the "TURN" @ osx 58 a while back. The OSX is in an unattractive - "low reward/moderate risk" trading range for a while imho... I won't re-enter the 'patch untill "high reward/low-moderate risk opps present themselves. In all seriousness; JAPAN is in deep, deep trouble... read the EXCELLENT piece in this months Forbes on Japan... which may realistically pull us into an extended global recession; if not a literal "D"epression... Valuations are insane in the US equity markets on any & all historic metrics - especially NOW; given terrorism, Japan (and Argentina) the bloated (best of the worst) US Dollar and the now collapsing debt pyramid. The Enron/Accounting scandal only scratches the surface on a "quality" of earnings weakness in the US market as well imho. I think we will indeed see DOW 6-7000 and it will take that to attract me and other sane value investors (vbg). We are one event away from a derivatives crisis in the US that will be the biggest market event in history imho. Gold & Gold stocks will be in a 1-3 year cyclical bull with tremendous upside; as the market cap of the sector is so SMALL; that all gold bull markets EVER need is an incredibly small % of investors to move an incredibly small portion of their investments into gold. ...this is the single most misunderstood concept concerning what is needed for a gold bull market... ie: what a small % change is needed to dramatically move this micro-market. ,,,tic toc~ Good Luck

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