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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (28936)2/9/2002 6:06:54 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Thanks Challo
I am convinced the entire mess is options driven and in a strong run either way(where strong support gives way or strong resistance breaks thru) it feeds on itself and overreacts in that direction for 3 weeks to a month 1/2.
Right now we just slowly chopping down but it looks like too many puts were too far in the money.

Looking ahead to March. At every strike from 35 up to but not including 40, PUTs heavily outweigh calls.

at strike 37 there are 167000 puts and 44000 calls.
Barring some kind of disaster, I see no reason for 37 NOT to hold in March. I see QQQ 40 as top perhaps a rally to 42 then a pullback to 40. This scenario also assumes there is no trigger that sends us lower in a panic.

Thus oddly enough I may be more bullish here than NV.
I am plagued with the fact that 4/5 of the Q is at insane levels as is the SOX. (Maybe they break up after AMAT reports). Can the market do well if chips fall apart?

There are no APRIL QQQ options yet, so if that volume is light, then perhaps we continue up to Zeev's double top.

Thus I have March a strong month (based on options), at least up to March expiry. As odd as it seems, I see no reason for us to not keep rallying from here up to March expiry. Perhaps they can innitiate another retest of QQQ 35 (that fails), just after this expiry (chip related perhaps) to sucker in a bunch of bears before the next insane ramp up (sparked by some good catlyst... but not sure what that might be either).

Not sure how much this differs or in in confluence with turnips, but that is my roadmap. Range-bound QQQ 35 to QQQ 40 until some catlyst other than options manipulations kills us at the wrong time, or sends us to the next level.

M
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