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Strategies & Market Trends : Visit Mr. Elliott.
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To: skinowski who started this subject2/9/2002 9:22:43 PM
From: Moominoid   of 656
 
GOLD

I've borrowed one of Robert Lussier's charts and scribbled a different count on it:

cres.anu.edu.au

It is possible to see the ED structure at the end as a triangle (and that is Lussier's interpretation) and waves 8 and 9 as 1 and 2 of the next move. But looking at this chart:

stockcharts.com[l,a]waclyyay[df][pd20,2!b8][vc60][iLh5,5]&pref=G

And the 8 week MA those 2 waves do appear to belong to the previous structure though they do exceed the trendline.

If it is 1 and 2 then wave 4 (May to Novermber) overlaps 1 or if we are in a leading diagonal wave then we are in wave 7 which is possible with a wave extension but wouldn't the a priori interpretation.

So my preferred interpretation is we are in 5 of a leading diagonal and should now expect wave 2 of the new gold bull market.

The alternative is that we are still in the ED big C wave shown by Lussier:

elliottwaveinsights.com

and Gold will head higher after a short pullback. But as I said I find the internal wave count difficult there.

My count fits the macro scenario where gold fell back during the Fall stock rally and surged during the stock fall back from December. True gold moved with the stock market in my wave 4 and 5 of C, but the phase seems to have shifted.

Now in stocks I see 3 more waves up. This would coincide with 3 waves down in gold. Then wave C of the big stock crash coincides with wave 3 up in gold!

Perfect!

David
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