SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: John Pitera who wrote (5539)2/9/2002 9:56:26 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
No problem!!.. You have one of the best threads on SI, imo (which is why I hang out here.. :0)

I really hope that I'm wrong, but I think we're going to be very lucky to have 1-2% growth, let alone 3%...

There so much overhang in the technology sector, with excess inventory and indebted telecoms unable to spend the necessary money for new equipment, that it will be years before the excesses are wrung out.

And as the yen devalues, the US automotive sector will be hard put to be profitable.

And as foreign economies suffer more greatly from inflation induced by having to compete with Japan's devaluation, I don't know how much motivation they will have to purchase US goods, since more money will be going to pay for energy.
I just don't see where the overall growth is going to come from.

And I think Bill Gross is one to something there... I've been primarily ascribing the high yields in the treasuries as a sign the Fed is selling them in order to drain liquidity from the system as money flowed back into stocks over the fall. But his analysis makes a lot of sense as well, and provides one more variable to incorporate in analyzing interest rates (rolling down the yield).

We definitely need to see mortgage rates go down, in order to see more consumer capital released in the form of lower monthly payments.

Hawk
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News