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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 153.08

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (112823)	2/9/2002 11:31:18 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) of 152472

Very true Jorj [that service providers want to make some money before upgrading networks]. But more accurately, they want to maximize their returns and profitability and avoid risk where they can. So, they'll upgrade if it is a good idea and they'll make a lot more money from 3G or increasing capacity so they can handle more calls or something like that. But there is also [and more importantly] the competitive element. If competitors are offering RadioOne handsets which deliver colour PacketVideo at low prices and that's what subscribers want, then it doesn't matter whether one company has just installed a new [but inadequate] system. They either upgrade or lose their customers and business. ATT is in that conundrum now with their TDMA systems. They also have to get the timing right. Too early, they lose. Too late, they lose. Service providers can watch what is happening in Korea to get an idea of what 1xRTT can do and how popular it is with people. The current fashionable idea that 3G is a dud is based on the GPRS failure [and Wait and Pay failure]. Also currently fashionable is the argument that speed doesn't matter - which is contrary to the argument that GPRS would be good because it's faster, which is irrelevant if speed doesn't matter. We can see how much speed doesn't matter when traffic lights turn green. People are notoriously impatient and they like speed. Speed matters. I don't recall your China/India arguments so I'll leave that except to say that there are 2 billion people there and they all like communicating, have families, friends and business needs. CDMA is the mechanism which can deliver it. Mqurice

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