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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: AC Flyer who wrote (14753)2/9/2002 11:33:34 PM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
In case you didn't have the patience to read my last post on gold, here are the Cliff's Notes:

1. Gold mine output is increasing by 3.5% to 4% per year.
2. Gold production costs have fallen by an average of $13/oz. each year since 1990.
3. Gold price is strongly correlated to production costs.
4. Under the worst case scenario, the maximum downside for gold price is $200/oz.
5. Most existing gold production capacity remains open at gold prices between $270 and $325/oz.
6. Production lost to depletion will be replaced by new projects if the price of gold remains in the $280 to $320/oz. range.
7. For production to continue to increase at current rates, a price of gold greater than $320/oz. will be required.

So there you have it, the future of the POG laid out before you. Gold price to move in a band of $280/oz to $320/oz., followed by a gradual uptrend from 2003 or so.
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