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To: StockOperator who wrote (149506)2/10/2002 1:03:58 AM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
I've been doing some late night reading and it's interesting to find that some are looking for a spring rally. There's talk that the price action in stocks like QCOM and in the biotechs have signaled that an intermediate term bottom has been set. Now of course anything can happen but let me just say that I seriously doubt it. My work is telling me that prices overall are facing two main obstacles. The first being that prices for a whole host of tech stocks are dead in the water (price wise) until at the least the second qtr. of the year. The second and probably the most important is that the selling forces that started back in 4/2000 are about to start beating up on stocks once again. That combination should make any upside move limited and unsustainable. It is also why I was pretty confident in my call the other day that CSCO would break $18, the low of the past couple of months. Now just look at a host of charts and you will see that CSCO is actually late to the party in that respect. Plenty of stocks have already rolled over. So think about it, on one side you have prices being locked down into a certain time frame with no where to go while also having to contend with a trend that has over the past two years wiped out a huge amount of paper wealth. Trust me when I say it stocks like QCOM and the BIO's and the Semis, even the utilities and just about everything else out there are all facing two choices. Breakout here.....or breakdown and perhaps face a retest of those Sept lows. Of course any kind of breakout in prices would almost have to be event driven (news). Which is almost impossible to predict. But yet any failure to do so will surely cause more of meltdown in prices through the end of the first qtr. Come April I reassess based on the structure of the charts.

Time will tell.

SO
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